[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 15 09:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. Solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 510 to 450 km/s during the UT day today.
The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed positive up to around 10nT
during the UT day today. Low level of solar activity with some
possibility of isolated M-class flare may be expected for the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22332212
Darwin 12 23333223
Townsville 11 23331---
Learmonth 13 33332---
Norfolk Island 8 22332122
Culgoora 9 22333212
Camden 9 22333212
Canberra 6 12322111
Hobart 7 22322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Mawson 13 4342221-
Davis 15 333-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2201 1103
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 6 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Apr 4 Quiet
17 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet to unsettled
levels today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 15
April. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 16 and 17 April.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 14 Apr, a weak (10nT) impulse
was observed at 0955UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor to
mild MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Apr 100 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Apr 100 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor to
mild MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 51500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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