[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 12 issued 2354 UT on 28 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 29 09:54:35 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A long duration C3.7 flare
was observed from region 1577(N08W41). This flare peaked at 2357UT/27
September. The flare was associated with a Type II radio burst
and a full halo earthward directed CME with an estimated speed
of 1035 km/s as reported by IPS Culgoora observatory. The CME
is expected to arrive in the second half of UT day 30 September.
Solar wind speed gradually declined from 370 km/s to around 320
km/s during the the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF
mostly varied between +/- 2 nT during this period. Low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next 3 days with some
possibility of isolated M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Darwin 2 21000002
Townsville 4 12111121
Learmonth 4 22111102
Norfolk Island 1 01000002
Camden 0 10000001
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 22310002
Mawson 1 21100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 7 Quiet
30 Sep 25 Unsettled to Active
01 Oct 35 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar level of activity may be expected on 29 September. Geomagnetic
activity may rise to Active to major storm levels in the second
half of UT day 30 September and stay at this level on 01 October
due to the effect of an earth ward directed CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
01 Oct Fair Fair-poor Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ
regions today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 29
and first half of 30 September. Minor to significant degradations
may be expected during the second half of 30 September and on
1 October due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 115
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 110 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
01 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF enhancements
were observed today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
on 29 September and first half of 30 September. Minor to significant
degradations in HF conditions may be expected through the second
half of 30 September and on 1 October due to an expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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