[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 12 issued 2351 UT on 29 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 30 09:51:04 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several low C-class
flares were observed most of which came from regions 1575(N07W73)
and 1577(N09W54). Solar wind speed gradually declined from
320 km/s to around 270 km/s during the the UT day today and
the Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/- 4 nT during
this period. The full halo earthward directed CME, that was
observed on 28 September, is expected to arrive with a shock
in the solar wind stream sometime in the second half of the
UT day 30 September and keep the solar wind stream stronger
on 01 October as well. Low levels of solar activity may be
expected for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated
M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11210111
Darwin 4 21210112
Townsville 5 12221221
Learmonth 7 22222222
Norfolk Island 2 11100112
Camden 2 11110111
Canberra 2 11100111
Hobart 3 11210111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 01010000
Casey 7 23320220
Mawson 6 01211233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 30 Active to Major Storm
01 Oct 35 Active to Major Storm
02 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 29 September
and is current for 30 Sep to 1 Oct. Geomagnetic activity stayed
at quiet levels today. Nearly similar level of activity may be
expected in the first half of 30 September. Due to the anticipated
effect of a full halo CME, Geomagnetic activity may rise to Active
to major storm levels in the second half of UT day 30 September
and stay at this level on 01 October due to the effect of an
earth ward directed CME. Activity level is expected to decline
to unsettled levels during the late hours of 01 October and then
to quiet levels on 02 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal-poor Normal-poor
01 Oct Fair Poor Poor
02 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ
regions today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected during
the first half of 30 September. Minor to significant degradations
may be expected during the second half of 30 September and on
01 October due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period. HF conditions may return to normal levels
on 02 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
01 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Oct 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 29 September
and is current for 30 Sep to 1 Oct. Mostly normal HF conditions
with periods of MUF enhancements were observed today. Nearly
similar conditions may be expected during the first half of 30
September. Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions
may be expected through the second half of 30 September and on
01 October due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels
during this period. HF conditions are expected to return to normal
levels on 02 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 35300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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