[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 12 issued 2350 UT on 27 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 28 09:50:08 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Today's largest event
was a C4.4 flare that peaked at 1722 UT. Solar wind speed stayed
between 400 and 450 km/s for most parts of the the UT day today
and the Bz component of IMF mostly varied between +/- 3 nT during
this period. Low levels of solar activity may be expected for
the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 22110001
Darwin 3 22110002
Townsville 5 22121121
Learmonth 6 32111212
Norfolk Island 2 21100002
Camden 3 2211-001
Canberra 2 21100001
Hobart 2 22110001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 11000001
Casey 10 44321011
Mawson 12 43410033
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 0100 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 4 Quiet
29 Sep 7 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Sep 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today. Nearly
similar level of activity may be expected on 28 September with
the possibility of some enhancements up to unsettled levels on
29 and 30 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Normal Normal
29 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ
regions today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for
the next 3 days in this region with some possibility of minor
degradations in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on the second and
third days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep 107
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 105 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with periods of MUF
enhancements were observed today. Nearly similar conditions
may be expected for the next 3 days with some possibility
of isolated minor degradations on high latitudes on the
second and third days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 86400 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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