[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 12 issued 2328 UT on 21 Sep 2012

Sat Sep 22 09:28:47 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 117/69

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Sep             23 Sep             24 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Two halo 
CME's were observed in LASCO imagery after 0548UT (803km/s) and 
1512UT (1439 km/s). Both appear to be far-side events. Solar 
wind parameters remain mildly elevated. Solar wind speed declined 
slightly during the first half of the UT day and increased slightly 
during the second half of the day as the coronal hole sequence 
rotates across the solar disk. The IMF Bz component was neutral 
until 07UT after which it showed mild (+/-4nT) fluctuations for 
the remainder of the day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22131311
      Darwin               5   22221202
      Townsville           8   12232321
      Learmonth            7   21232311
      Norfolk Island       4   21121210
      Camden               7   22131311
      Canberra             5   12131211
      Hobart               7   21132311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     7   11043210
      Casey               10   33332221
      Mawson              16   33222353

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            47   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3222 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
23 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Although solar wind speeds are mildly elevated due to 
a coronal hole wind stream, the IMF Bz component has remained 
at near-neutral values over the UT day, limiting geomagnetic 
disturbance. The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low 
to mid latitudes with isolated unsettled to active intervals 
observed late in the UT day at polar cusp latitudes. There is 
a chance of isolated unsettled periods day one, with conditions 
declining to generally quiet by day three.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Strong daytime MUF enhancements observed at low latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Sep    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced to 60% 09-16UT, 
      depressed 20% 19-22UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 30-50% 00-12UT,
      enhanced by 10% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin enhanced 15-50% 06-15UT, 
      depressed 15% 17-19UT. 
      Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Strong daytime MUF enhancements observed Equatorial 
region. Other Aus/NZ regions MUF's mostly normal. Expect mostly 
normal ionospheric conditions next three days with variable conditions 
possible at times Equatorial/N Aus regions. Minor degradations 
possible day one in S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to mild geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   164000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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