[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 September 12 issued 2329 UT on 20 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 21 09:29:56 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the UT day.
Active region 1574 (S23W69) produced a number of minor X-ray
and SF flares throughout the day and appears to be growing. NW
and NE directed CME's were observed in LASCO imagery. These appear
to be far-side events. Solar wind speed is mildly elevated at
about 500 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was moderately (-10nT)
negative at the start of the UT day and exhibited fluctuations
to +/-10nT over the first half of the day. Bz settled to mostly
neutral values over the second half of the UT day. The Phi component
fluctuated +/- 180 deg. throughout the day. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be disturbed days one and two due to a mild coronal
hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 33322211
Darwin 9 33322212
Townsville 11 33332222
Learmonth 11 32323322
Norfolk Island 7 32322110
Camden 8 23322211
Canberra 7 22322211
Hobart 8 23322211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 12 22344211
Casey 20 45532222
Mawson 25 43433255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 1312 2444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 12 Unsettled
22 Sep 12 Unsettled
23 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mildly elevated solar wind speeds and moderate fluctuations
in the Phi and Bz components resulted in intervals of unsettled
to active geomagnetic conditions at high latitudes. Isolated
unsettled periods were observed at some mid-latitude stations
around 08UT, otherwise conditions remained quiet. Expect unsettled
periods days one and two due to elevated solar wind parameters,
with the chance of unsettled to active periods at high latitudes.
In the IPS magnetometer data for 20 Sep, a weak (14nT) impulse
was observed at 0624UT. This was associated with Phi and Bz fluctuations
and is not shock indicative.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUF enhancements/depressions observed at low
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 15% 05-06UT. Depressed 15-30% 08-18UT.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin depressed 20% 02-04, 17-18UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Christchurch depressed 15% 00-07UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed to 30% at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions to 40% observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Other Aus/NZ regions MUF's mostly normal. Expect
similar conditions next three days. Expect minor depressions
days one and two in S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to mild geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 54400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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