[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 12 issued 2339 UT on 19 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 20 09:39:36 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Sunspot regions on the visible disk appear stable. Two
minor C-class flares were observed today both originating in
newly numbered region 1576 (S22E62). A slow halo CME was observed
after 1530UT. This was probably a far-side event. Solar wind
speed remained steady at around 400 km/s. The Bz component of
the Interplanetary Magnetic Field was neutral to mildly negative
over the first half of the UT day. It turned moderately southward
(-10nT) for extended periods during the second half of the UT
day. Mild coronal hole wind stream effects are anticipated days
two and three of the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 22112243
Darwin 8 22112233
Townsville 11 22223333
Learmonth 12 22122344
Norfolk Island 6 11002233
Camden 9 12112243
Canberra 8 12002243
Hobart 11 22112244
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 12103333
Casey 22 55431233
Mawson 16 34212434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2323 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Sep 12 Unsettled
22 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet at low to mid latitudes
over the first half of the UT day. A moderately southward turning
of the IMF Bz during the second half of the day resulted in unsettled
conditions. Unsettled to active intervals were observed throughout
the UT day at high latitudes. Expect occasional unsettled periods
day one, and mostly unsettled conditions days two and three due
to an anticipated mild coronal hole wind stream. Chance of active
conditions at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable MUF enhancements/depressions observed at low
latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 15% 07-09UT,
otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin enhanced to 40% 04-08UT,
depressed 30% 14-18UT.
Townsville depressed 15% 06-12, 15-19UT.
Learmonth depressed 20% 11-15UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Brisbane, Norfolk I. depressed 5-15%
03-14, 17-21UT.
Perth enhanced 30% 15-21UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions to 40% observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions, extending at times to Central Aus regions. Other
Aus/NZ regions MUF's mostly normal. Expect similar conditions
next three days. Expect minor depressions days two to three in
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to mild geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 66800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list