[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 12 issued 2331 UT on 22 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 23 09:31:46 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. An E-directed
CME was seen in LASCO C3 imagery after 0354UT. This was probably
a far-side event. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to a
weak coronal hole wind stream, but declined steadily over the
UT day from 500 to 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component was mostly
neutral over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22220011
Darwin 4 22120012
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 6 22231111
Norfolk Island 3 21120011
Camden 3 12220001
Canberra 2 11220001
Hobart 3 12220001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 11241000
Casey 10 34321202
Mawson 15 33421025
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 5 Quiet
24 Sep 4 Quiet
25 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Despite mildly elevated solar wind speed, the regional
geomagnetic field remained quiet over the UT day. Isolated unsettled
periods observed at high latitudes only. Solar wind parameters
are expected to decline day one of the forecast period. Expect
mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed 15% 04-06, 18-20UT,
enhanced 15-30% 08-14UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 15% 00-03UT,
depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin enhanced 10-20% 00-01, 06-14UT,
depressed 30% 16-19UT.
Townsville depressed 30% 16-19UT.
Other stations near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Scott Base no data after 10UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions observed Equatorial
region. Other Aus/NZ regions MUF's mostly normal. Expect mostly
normal ionospheric conditions next three days with variable conditions
possible at times Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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