[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 September 12 issued 2332 UT on 17 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 18 09:32:51 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep
Activity Very Low Very Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at low levels. Solar wind parameters
were stable over the UT day and should remain stable days one
and two of the forecast period. Some CME activity was observed
in LASCO imagery but directed to the solar NE and NW and is unlikely
to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin 3 22011102
Townsville 6 22212221
Learmonth 5 22112211
Norfolk Island 3 22011011
Camden 4 13-12001
Canberra 2 12012001
Hobart 2 12012001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 01021000
Casey 7 24211112
Mawson 9 33121133
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2211 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Sep 5 Quiet
19 Sep 5 Quiet
20 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes
over the UT day. Expect continuing quiet conditions days one
and two of the forecast period. Minor coronal hole effects possible
day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal
19 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable MUF depressions observed at low latitudes and
anticipated days one and two.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Sep 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions to 40% observed local day Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Mild depressions local day in Central to S Aus/NZ
regions. Expect similar conditions days one and two. Expect minor
depressions day 3 in S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions due to a slight
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 49200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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