[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 12 issued 2351 UT on 16 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 17 09:51:43 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: All visible regions on the solar disk have been predominately
stable and quiet during 16 September. The current spot groups
are not particularly active, solar activity is expected to be
at Very Low levels over the next 3 days. CME activity observed
during 16 September is not expected to be geoeffective. A solar
sector boundary crossing occurred ~18UT. The solar wind speed
remained below 420km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the
IMF fluctuated between +/-5nT with some weak sustained southwards
periods. Expect the solar wind to remain moderate over the next
24 hours. A coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to
mildly elevate the solar wind speed starting day tree (19 September)
of the forecast.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet with an isolated Unsettled
period.
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 12121232
Darwin 6 21111232
Townsville 7 22221232
Learmonth 9 22122242
Norfolk Island 5 12120131
Camden 6 12121232
Canberra 6 12120232
Hobart 6 12121231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 01130121
Casey 12 34321232
Mawson 22 55211253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3222 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Sep 5 Quiet
19 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region
with an isolated Unsettled period around 1800UT probably associated
with the onset of a solar sector boundary crossing. Expect Quiet
to Unsettled geomagnetic activity for 17 September. On 18 September
expect a return to Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity. On 19
September a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes
geoeffective, may cause some Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
19 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed for the next 24
hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions with some variability in the equatorial
regions noted during the UT day,16 September. These conditions
are expected to persist for the next 24 hours. Expect minor depressions
on day 3 (19 September) in the Australian/Antarctic regions due
to a slight increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 67400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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