[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 12 issued 2348 UT on 15 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 16 09:48:12 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Only some
B-class flares were observed. The current spot groups are not
particularly active, solar activity is expected to be predominately
at Very Low levels over the next 3 days. New region 1572(N15W70)
was numbered today. No possible geoeffective CMEs were observed
during 15 September. The solar wind speed remained moderate(400-460km/s)and
the Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-4nT during
15 September. There is a chance that solar wind speed may slightly
increase late in the UT day on 16 September due to September
13 CME minor effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22121211
Darwin 5 22111212
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 8 32222222
Norfolk Island 3 21110111
Camden 4 12121111
Canberra 4 12120112
Hobart 4 12121211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 1212010-
Casey 14 44421222
Mawson 15 44222234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1100 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet in the Australian
region with some Active periods in the Antarctic region over
the UT day. Minor effect from September 13 CME may cause Unsettled
conditions late on 16 and early 17 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed for the next 24
hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions with some variability in the equatorial
regions noted during the UT day,15 September. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 2 days with improvement thereafter.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 82900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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