[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 12 issued 2347 UT on 14 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 15 09:47:44 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Visible regions on the solar disk have been predominately
stable and quiet during 14 September. No large or magnetically
complex regions are on the disk. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low for the next 3 days. There continue to be a chance
of C-class flares. No possible geoeffective CMEs were observed
during 14 September. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly northward
with short reversals to the southward orientation. Solar wind
has been steady near ~440km/s for the last 24h. A small coronal
hole high speed wind stream is expected to mildly elevate the
solar wind speed late on September 15. A further slight increase
on September 16 is possible due to September 13 CME effects.
This CME is expected to produce only minor, if any, disturbance
at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21101212
Darwin 5 21101213
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 7 22211322
Norfolk Island 3 21001212
Camden 4 21101212
Canberra 2 11001202
Hobart 5 11102312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 00001301
Casey 11 34421201
Mawson 5 23211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 55 (Unsettled)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3210 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region
with isolated cases of Active levels in the Antarctic region
over the UT day. Late on 15 September UT a weak coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective, may cause
some Unsettled periods with a probable increase to Active levels
on 16 September due the possible arrival of a weak CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed for the next three
days, especially at mid and high latitude locations.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Sep 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some depressions at low
latitudes in the north. Expect minor depressions for the next
3 days in the Australian/Antarctic regions due to a slight increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 86500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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