[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 12 issued 2333 UT on 11 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 12 09:33:43 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during 11 September with several
C class flares from active regions 1564(S11W82), 1567(N16W02)
and 1569(S12E53). Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected
over the forecast period with the small chance of isolated M-class
flares. No possible geoeffective CMEs were observed during 11
September. The solar wind speed remained light at ~300 km/s and
the Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-2nT during
11 September. Expect the solar wind to remain light over the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 10001101
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 4 11211122
Learmonth 2 2101110-
Norfolk Island 0 10000000
Camden 1 10001101
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22210110
Mawson 2 11200010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2120 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 5 Quiet
13 Sep 5 Quiet
14 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet during 11 September.
Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three days (12-14
September).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 11 September. MUFs
are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the remainder
of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 31100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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