[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 12 issued 2333 UT on 11 Sep 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 12 09:33:43 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during 11 September with several 
C class flares from active regions 1564(S11W82), 1567(N16W02) 
and 1569(S12E53). Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected 
over the forecast period with the small chance of isolated M-class 
flares. No possible geoeffective CMEs were observed during 11 
September. The solar wind speed remained light at ~300 km/s and 
the Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between +/-2nT during 
11 September. Expect the solar wind to remain light over the 
next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10001101
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           4   11211122
      Learmonth            2   2101110-
      Norfolk Island       0   10000000
      Camden               1   10001101
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                3   22210110
      Mawson               2   11200010

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2120 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep     5    Quiet
13 Sep     5    Quiet
14 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet during 11 September. 
Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next three days (12-14 
September).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Sep    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 11 September. MUFs 
are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the remainder 
of the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    31100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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