[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 12 issued 2345 UT on 10 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 11 09:45:52 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 09/2236UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Only low C-class flares observed over the period with
the largest being a C3.1 level event from region 1564(S12W69)at
1255UT. The M1 flare on September 9 at 2236UT had no associated
CME. Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected for 11
September with the small chance of isolated M-class flares. A
filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant around 1000UT.
An associated CME was observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery around
1200UT. STEREO imagery indicates a predominant southward direction.
Solar wind speeds continued to decline slowly during 10 September
and are presently around 300km/s. The IMF Bz component fluctuated
around neutral during 10 September. The solar wind is expected
to continue settling over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11101000
Darwin 3 11202101
Townsville 5 22212121
Learmonth 4 22212110
Norfolk Island 1 11101000
Camden 1 11101001
Canberra 1 01101000
Hobart 1 02100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 23211010
Mawson 6 43201010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1011 2102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 5 Quiet
12 Sep 5 Quiet
13 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions over the Australian continent were
Quiet and are expected to remain Quiet over the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 10 September, with
MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 52300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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