[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 12 issued 2339 UT on 12 Sep 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 13 09:39:43 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Sep             14 Sep             15 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 12 September, with several 
C-class flares mostly from AR 1564 and AR 1567. Predominantly 
C-class flare activity is expected over the forecast period with 
the small chance of isolated M-class flares. Two new regions, 
1570(S13W34) and 1571(S12E57) were numbered today. No significant 
CME activity was observed over the period. The solar wind speed 
showed a minor upward trend from 300 to 400km/s around 1900UT.There 
was a sustained period of southward(-5nT) IMF Bz from 1900UT 
to 2000UT otherwise Bz was mostly neutral. Expect the solar wind 
to remain light over the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Mostly Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods.

Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11232122
      Darwin               7   12222123
      Townsville          10   22232233
      Learmonth            8   22232222
      Norfolk Island       6   11232022
      Camden               6   11232112
      Canberra             5   11231012
      Hobart               5   11231012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   10030001
      Casey                6   22221122
      Mawson              12   23112135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   1000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Sep     7    Quiet
14 Sep     7    Quiet
15 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet with isolated 
cases of Unsettled levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for 
the next three days (13-15 September).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Sep    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 12 September. MUFs 
are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the remainder 
of the forecast period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 298 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    21300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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