[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 12 issued 2315 UT on 29 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 30 10:15:42 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity Low Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain mostly Very Low to Low
for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 1 10110000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 2 11111101
Norfolk Island 1 10100002
Culgoora 0 10100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 10100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00100000
Mawson 7 23111014
Davis 7 23222112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0021 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 5 Quiet
31 Oct 12 Mostly Quiet with Active to Minor storm levels
possible late in the UT day.
01 Nov 18 Mostly Unsettled with isolated Active to Minor
Storm periods possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet for 30 October
with activity expected to increase to Active and possible Minor
Storm late on 31 October and into 1 November with the anticipated
arrival of 27/28 October CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions should remain mostly normal for the next
two days. Mildly degraded conditions may occur at times during
1 November in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 75 Mostly near predicted monthly values with mild
depressions possible at times.
COMMENT: MUFs remain generally enhanced across Australia. MUFs
should remain mostly near predicted monthly values for the next
two days. Mild depressions may be observed during 1 November
in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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