[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 12 issued 2317 UT on 30 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 31 10:17:52 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain mostly Very Low
to Low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 10011001
Cocos Island 0 00110000
Darwin 0 10000001
Townsville 4 22111111
Learmonth 2 21011001
Norfolk Island 1 20000002
Culgoora 1 10001001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 10011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Mawson 4 31000013
Davis 6 22222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0020 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 12 Mostly Quiet with the chance of Active to Minor
storm levels late in the UT day
01 Nov 20 Mostly Unsettled to Active with the chance of
Minor Storm levels
02 Nov 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet for 31 October
with activity expected to increase to Active and possible Minor
Storm levels late in the UT day and into 1 November with the
anticipated arrival of 27/28 October CMEs. Activity should return
to mostly Unsettled levels by 2 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Conditions should remain mostly normal for 31 October.
Mildly degraded conditions may occur at times during 1-2 November
in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 75 Mostly near predicted monthly values with mild
depressions possible at times.
02 Nov 75 Mostly near predicted monthly values with mild
depressions possible at times.
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
30 October. MUFs should remain mostly near predicted monthly
values for 31 October. Mild depressions may be observed during
1-2 November in response to anticipated elevated geomagnetic
activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 28700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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