[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 12 issued 2330 UT on 28 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 29 10:30:56 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with a long duration C1
flare peaking at 0805UT being the only flare. The source region
is on or around the western limb. A CME was observed in associate
with this event that is unlikely to be geoeffective. Further
analysis of the CME observed around 1730UT on the 27th as noted
in yesterdays report suggests this CME will be geoeffective,
although it is small and slow moving. Impact is expected sometime
on the 31st of October UT. Solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 21112011
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 7 32222221
Learmonth 3 21112010
Norfolk Island 4 21112012
Culgoora 2 21102000
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 11001000
Hobart 2 11112010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11012000
Mawson 7 12111142
Davis 10 23222142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1120 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 5 Quiet
30 Oct 5 Quiet
31 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and expected to remain
Quiet for the next 2-3 days. An expected impact from a slow moving
CME may cause an isolated Active period on impact sometime on
the 31st of October, with Unsettled periods following.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly enhanced HF propagation conditions observed at
all latitudes over the past 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 95 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remain generally enhanced across Australia. MUFs
should remain at around predicted monthly values for the next
few days, trending gently downwards from the highly enhanced
levels observed over the last week or so.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 61800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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