[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 12 issued 2329 UT on 24 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 25 10:29:59 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last day. Region 1598(S11E33)
produced multiple C flares, the greatest magnitude being a C4.
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed. This region remains
magnetically complex and M flare activity is probable over the
next few days with some chance of X class flare activity. The
solar wind conditions are ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 2 21100011
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 2 21111000
Norfolk Island 1 11100001
Culgoora 1 -01100-0
Camden 3 11111111
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11110010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 01120000
Mawson 8 22211242
Davis 10 22322332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 1222 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 5 Quiet
26 Oct 5 Quiet
27 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to
remain Quiet for the next 3 days. Active region 1598(S12E29)
which has the potential to produce M and X class flares is rotating
into a favourable position for any flare produced CMEs to strike
the Earth. This may lead to heightened geomagnetic activity over
the next 7-10 days although no CMEs are currently in transit
towards the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly enhanced HF propagation conditions observed at
all latitudes over the past 24 hours with a some daytime depressed
periods observed at mid latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remain generally enhanced across Australia although
daytime depressions of up to 15% were observed on the east coast
yesterday. MUFs should remain at around predicted monthly values
for the next few days, reducing somewhat from the enhanced levels
observed over the previous week.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 32600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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