[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 12 issued 2330 UT on 25 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 26 10:30:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Low levels with only minor C class
flares. Region 11598(S12E20) remains the most magnetically complex
visible region but has decayed in size and complexity over the
last 24 hours. Some possibility remains for further isolated
M class flares over the next few days from this region. The solar
wind conditions remain ambient.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11111012
Darwin 1 10000012
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 33311002
Norfolk Island 2 11010111
Culgoora 2 10111002
Camden 3 111-----
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 11011001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 01020001
Mawson 14 43112144
Davis 9 33222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 5 Quiet
27 Oct 5 Quiet
28 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
Quiet for the remainder of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly enhanced HF propagation conditions observed at
all latitudes over the past 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs remain generally enhanced across Australia. MUFs
should remain at or above predicted monthly values for the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 38300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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