[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 12 issued 2327 UT on 23 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 24 10:27:20 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.7 0317UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was at High levels over the previous
day with region 11598(S12E46) producing an X1 flare peaking at
0317UT with an associated weak TypeII radio burst and several
C class flares. A small CME possibly associated with one of the
C class flares can be seen in STEREO-A imagery however it is
unlikely to be geoeffective. The solar wind conditions remain
ambient. Further M flare activity from region 11598 is likely
over the next few days with a chance of isolated X flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 33221111
Darwin 9 34221122
Townsville 10 34222222
Learmonth 6 33121210
Norfolk Island 5 23221011
Culgoora 3 -----1--
Camden 9 33231221
Canberra 5 23121111
Hobart 8 23232211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 221-----
Mawson 12 332-----
Davis 12 33333222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 5 Quiet
25 Oct 5 Quiet
26 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mainly Quiet with a brief Unsettled
period around 03UT. Conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet
for the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced HF propagation conditions observed at all latitudes
over the past 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct 90 Near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Oct 100 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs are being observed across all latitudes
due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from the many sun spot
regions on the visible Sun. Mild post dawn depressions are currently
being observed on the east coast of Australia. This does not
correspond to any significant geomagnetic activity so the effect
is expected to be transient and MUFs should return to around
predicted monthly values or above for most of the UT day. Days
2 and 3 of the forecast period should also see MUFs at or above
predicted monthly values for most of the day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 35800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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