[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 12 issued 2334 UT on 22 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 23 10:34:04 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.0 1852UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels. Region 11598(S13E59)
produced an M5 flare peaking at 1851UT and several C flares.
Region 11593 (N15W17) also produced a C6 flare peaking at 1603UT.
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed. The solar wind conditions
remained ambient. The >2MeV electron flux remains elevated with
increased possibility of satellite deep dielectric discharge.
Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21100111
Darwin 3 22100111
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 2 21100111
Norfolk Island 1 11100011
Culgoora 1 11000---
Camden 2 21100111
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 1 11100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Mawson 6 42100022
Davis 9 33222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 5 Quiet
24 Oct 5 Quiet
25 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions are Quiet and are expected to remain
Quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced HF propagation conditions observed at all latitudes
over the past 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Oct 120 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs are being observed across all latitudes
due to high levels of ionising EUV flux from the many sun spot
regions on the visible Sun. These conditions are expected to
continue for the next 3 days. Some isolated HF fadeouts may occur
over the next few days due to the possibility of M class flares.
There is a possibility of proton enhancement within the period
resulting in high latitude ionospheric disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 44400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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