[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 12 issued 2331 UT on 21 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 22 10:31:24 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 2005UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Recently numbered active region 1598 (S09E69) produced
C7.8 (0316UT), C5.6 (0534UT) and M1.3 (2003UT) flares over the
UT day. These events were all of relatively short (~1hour) duration.
No Earth-directed CME's were observed over the period. Region
1596 (N06E33) contributed minor C-class flares. Both regions
maintain potential for further isolated M- to X-class activity.
Solar wind parameters were stable with solar wind speed steady
at ~350 km/s. The IMF Bz component showed mild (+/-4nT) fluctuations
about neutral. Solar wind speed is expected to increase slightly
days one and two under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream.
The >2MeV electron flux remains elevated with increased possibility
of satellite deep dielectric discharge.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 21111011
Norfolk Island 3 11111111
Culgoora 1 11011000
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 01011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Mawson 5 32111012
Davis 9 33322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes.
Chance of Unsettled periods at low to mid latitudes and isolated
Active intervals at high latitudes days one and two due to an
anticipated mild coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced HF propagation conditions observed at all latitudes
over the past 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct 116
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced 30% before local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
23 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
24 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: Observed enhanced MUF's across the region due to sustained
high EUV flux associated with a number of active regions on the
visible solar disk. There is the possibility of isolated M- to
X-class flares with associated HF fadeouts. Anticipated mild
geomagnetic activity days one and two may produce low-latitude
MUF variability and high latitude disturbances. There is a possibility
of proton enhancement within the period resulting in high latitude
ionospheric disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 59800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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