[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 12 issued 2333 UT on 20 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 21 10:33:15 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.0 1814UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar X-ray activity was nominal with the exception
of an impulsive event reaching M9 level at 1814UT. The flare
originated in newly numbered active region 1598 (S12E82) on the
East limb. SDO imagery has shown a number of eruptive events
from this region over the past few days. Associated with the
M9 flare was a Type II radio sweep with estimated velocity 516
km/s, and a CME which does not appear to be Earth-directed. This
region may produce further C- to X-class activity. Flare potential
will be better known when its magnetic configuration becomes
apparent as it rotates onto the visible disk. Solar wind speed
declined slightly from 400 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component
was moderately Northward for the first half of the UT day, trending
mildly Southward (-2nT) later in the day. The >2MeV electron
flux remained at high levels over the UT day, with increased
satellite deep dielectric discharge potential.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 11100011
Darwin 1 11000002
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 3 31011001
Norfolk Island 1 11000002
Culgoora 1 11000011
Camden 1 11100011
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 01000000
Mawson 4 11111023
Davis 7 23222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 2000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet at all latitudes.
Possible Unsettled conditions days one and two due to an anticipated
weak coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Enhanced HF propagation conditions observed at all latitudes
over the past 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
22 Oct 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
23 Oct 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
COMMENT: Observed enhanced MUF's across the region due to sustained
high EUV flux associated with a number of active regions on the
visible solar disk. There is the possibility of isolated M- to
X-class flares with associated HF fadeouts. Anticipated mild
geomagnetic activity days one and two may produce low-latitude
MUF variability and high latitude disturbances. There is a possibility
of proton enhancement within the period resulting in high latitude
ionospheric disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 464 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 159000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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