[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 12 issued 2333 UT on 19 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 20 10:33:09 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed today.
Active region 1589 (N12W57) and 1594 (S27E11) produced C1 level
flares. An impulsive C3.6 level flare of unknown origin was observed
at 2052UT. SE-directed CME's were observed in LASCO C3 imagery
after 0054 and 0842UT. A NE-directed CME was observed after 1330UT.
These were most probably E limb/far-side events and not likely
to be geoeffective. EUV ionisation remains high due to the number
of active regions on the visible solar disk. The >2MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit remains at high levels. Solar wind
speed declined from 500 to 400 km/s over the UT day. The IMF
Bz component was mostly neutral (+/-2nT) over the UT day. Solar
wind speeds may remain slightly elevated over the next three
days due to an approaching CIR and a second anticipated coronal
hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 21101011
Darwin 2 21100002
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 2 22101001
Norfolk Island 2 21000011
Culgoora 2 21101011
Camden 2 21100001
Canberra 0 10000000
Hobart 2 21100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Mawson 6 42102110
Davis 9 43222121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 5 Quiet
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet. Isolated Unsettled
periods were observed early in the UT day at high latitudes only.
Solar wind speed is mildly elevated but the IMF Bz component
has remained near-neutral limiting geomagnetic activity. Expect
Quiet conditions day one with possible Unsettled periods days
two and three due to anticipated mild solar wind disturbances.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Darwin enhanced to 50% 11-15UT.
Townsville enhanced to 30% 13-15UT.
Learmonth enhanced to 30% 05-07UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 100 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct 100 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Oct 100 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Equatorial/N Aus region MUF's enhanced due to high EUV
flux associated with a number of active regions on the visible
solar disk. Although solar flare activity has been low, there
remains the possibility of isolated M-class flares with associated
HF fadeouts. Anticipated mild geomagnetic activity days two and
three may produce low-latitude MUF variability and high latitude
disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 561 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 320000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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