[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 12 issued 0250 UT on 19 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 19 13:50:57 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low, with no C-class flares
18th Oct despite 9 active regions on the solar disc. AR1592 and
1595 have dissipated. The region rotating onto the eastern limb
is AR1596 and a new region AR1597 (S21, W28, Dro class and growing)
appeared and these two regions hold the most M-class flare potential
(10%). However substantial EUV flux is being produced from the
numerous regions for ionising the ionosphere. The high speed
solar wind stream, with Vsw = 500-600km/sec, from coronal hole
CH541 unexpectedly continued for the whole UT day and the stream
must be longitudinally wider than the CH on the disc. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field remained stable, oscillating in +/-5nT range,
over the period, with no extended southward periods. A solar
sector boundary is due to rotate across Earth late in the UT
day on the 19th, possibly associated with coronal hole CH542,
so Vsw may only briefly subside between the two streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22110212
Darwin 4 22110212
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 5 32120202
Norfolk Island 4 12110212
Culgoora 4 22110211
Camden 4 22110211
Canberra 2 21010201
Hobart 3 22110201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11120101
Mawson 13 42211144
Davis 16 43332324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2221 1103
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 5 Quiet
20 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet 18-Oct, with some isolated
Unsettled periods due to high solar wind speed from coronal
hole CH541 which has remained elevated at 500-600km/s for longer
than expected as the stream must be wider than the CH on the
disc. The high speed stream should rotate past Earth early in
the UT day 19th Oct but a solar sector boundary is expected to
rotate across Earth late on 19th Oct UT day with some geomagnetic
disturbances.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 100 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct 100 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
21 Oct 100 0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were again enhanced above predicted monthly values
due to enhanced EUV flux from 9 spot groups on the solar disc
with most likely to remain for the next 3 days. Despite the large
number of spot groups the propensity for M/X flares and shortwave
fadeouts is low (<10%). Very high MUF variability at low latitudes
over 18-Oct may have been due to geomagnetic activity caused
by a high speed solar wind speed stream from a coronal hole,
expected to pass early 19th Oct but then pick up again late in
the UT day as a solar sector boundary passes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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