[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 October 12 issued 2332 UT on 08 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 9 10:32:35 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 OCTOBER - 11 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 1117UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Oct: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate 08-Oct, with an M2.3 flare
at 1117UT from an active region around the East limb of the Sun.
An associated CME visible in SOHO and STEREO imagery is not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar activity is expected to be Low 09-Oct.
Without magnetogram observations of the active region around
the East limb it is difficult to forecast activity from this
region, however yesterdays activity would suggest there is a
chance of further isolated M-class flares. The CME reported on
05-Oct arrived earlier than expected with a weak shock in the
solar wind at 0432UT (08-Oct) followed by two extended periods
of southwards-directed IMF, from 0430-1200UT and from 1800UT
to the time of reporting (2330UT). The solar wind speed was only
marginally elevated following the CME, and remains near 350km/s.
A small coronal hole wind stream may increase the solar wind
speed today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Oct: Quiet to Active, with Minor
Storm period 06-12UT
Estimated Indices 08 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 13443143
Darwin 17 23443243
Townsville 17 23443243
Learmonth 18 23343253
Norfolk Island 16 13542133
Camden 20 13553133
Canberra 15 03533133
Hobart 21 04553133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Oct :
Macquarie Island 33 14663244
Casey 17 34332144
Mawson 51 54753256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1112 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Oct 20 Active
10 Oct 12 Unsettled
11 Oct 8 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 6 October and
is current for 8-9 Oct. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels
until the arrival of a CME produced a weak (12nT) impulse in
the geomagnetic field at 0517UT. This was followed by an Active
to Minor Storm period 06-12UT, as a result of sustained southwards
directed IMF, before a recovery to Unsettled conditions. A further
sustained period of southwards directed IMF from 1800UT raised
geomagnetic activity back to Active levels late in the UT day,
and is ongoing. Expect continuing elevated geomagnetic activity
09-Oct, with isolated Minor Storm periods at high latitudes,
with a recovery to mostly Unsettled conditions 10-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Oct 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Oct 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Oct 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 6 October
and is current for 8-9 Oct. HF conditions were normal over the
first half of the UT day, with some degraded conditions occurring
overnight, particularly in S.Aus/NZ locations, as a result of
increased geomagnetic activity. MUFs remained mostly near predicted
monthly values. Expect continuing degraded HF conditions 09-10
Oct, with moderate MUF depressions, particularly at S.Aus/NZ
locations, as a result of ongoing geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Oct
Speed: 327 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 27100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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