[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 12 issued 2332 UT on 07 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 8 10:32:48 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 07-Oct. A filament eruption from
the southern hemisphere produced a south-westward directed CME
visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 0824UT. STEREO Ahead/Behind
imagery of the CME shows the event to be strongly southwards-directed,
with only a small Earth-directed component. WSA-Enlil modelling
indicates a weak Earthward-directed component, expected to arrive
11-Oct. Solar activity is expected to continue at Very Low levels
next three days with isolated C-class flares possible. The solar
wind speed remains slow and the IMF relatively stable. ACE EPAM
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 07/1050UT,
which is likely a precursor to the arrival of the CME from 05-Oct.
Expect elevated solar wind speeds and disturbed IMF conditions
08-09 Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11121011
Darwin 3 11111012
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 4 11121121
Norfolk Island 2 21020011
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 1 11010000
Hobart 2 12020001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11030000
Casey 8 33321121
Mawson 12 33211144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2112 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 20 Unsettled to Active
09 Oct 25 Active to Minor Storm
10 Oct 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 6 October and
is current for 8-9 Oct. The geomagnetic field was Quiet 07-Oct.
Quiet conditions are expected over the first half of 08-Oct before
the arrival of a CME late 08-Oct or early 09-Oct, which is expected
to increase geomagnetic activity to Active to Minor Storm levels.
Minor Storm conditions expected at high latitudes 09-Oct. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to return to mostly Unsettled conditions
10-Oct, with isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
09 Oct Fair Fair Poor
10 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 70 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Oct 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 6 October
and is current for 8-9 Oct. Normal HF conditions were observed
07-Oct, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. Expect
normal HF conditions over the first half of 08-Oct, with some
degraded conditions late in the UT day and into 09-Oct. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions are likely 09-10 Oct as a result
of increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 36100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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