[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 12 issued 2330 UT on 09 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 10 10:30:29 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 09-Oct, with the largest flare
a C5.9 from an active region around the east limb in the southern
hemisphere. No CMEs from 09-Oct are expected to be geoeffective.
Two regions near the east limb appear to have eruptive potential,
although until they rotate further onto the visible disk it is
difficult to accurately determine their flare potential. Previous
activity from these regions and suggests there is a chance of
isolated M-class flares. The Earth remained under the influence
of an ICME for most of 09-Oct, with an extended period of southwards
IMF (Bz<-15nT) from 08/1800UT - 09/0800UT. However the solar
wind speed remained relatively low (<400km/s) limiting the impact
of this event. Solar wind speed increased late in the UT day
under the influence of a small recurrent coronal hole, and is
expected to remain elevated 10-11 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 24 44552233
Darwin 23 44452234
Townsville 25 44552234
Learmonth 29 55552233
Norfolk Island 24 44552233
Camden 36 -5662233
Canberra 28 44562233
Hobart 36 45662234
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Oct :
Macquarie Island 65 55783223
Casey 20 442-----
Mawson 37 66353244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 38
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 40 2466 5244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Active to Minor Storm
over the first half of the UT day, the continuing effects of
an extended period of southwards directed IMF, before returning
to mostly Unsettled levels for the remainder of the day. Expect
mostly Unsettled conditions 10-Oct as a result of a coronal hole
wind stream, returning to Quiet levels 11-12 Oct. Isolated Active
periods expected at high latitudes 10-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Oct 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
12 Oct 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 9 October
and is current for 10-11 Oct. Significant MUF depressions and
degraded HF conditions were observed across all low-, mid-, and
high-latitude sites 09-Oct, as a result of sustained geomagnetic
activity. Expect continuing degraded HF conditions 10 Oct, with
moderate-strong MUF depressions, particularly at S.Aus/NZ locations,
as a result of ongoing geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 71600 K Bz: -8 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list