[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 12 issued 2330 UT on 21 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 22 10:30:02 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0658UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.5 1530UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Region 1618 (N08 E01) produced an M1.4 flare at 0656
UT and an M3.5 flare at 1530 UT along with some low level C flares.
The M1.4 flare produced a weak Type II event with an estimated
shock speed around 720 km/s. The M3.5 flare was associated with
a 10cm radio burst with a peak of 200 sfu at 1523 UT. LASCO and
STEREO images indicate CMEs associated with the M flares which
are likely to be geo-effective. The region continues to grow
in size and magnetic complexity, region 1619 (N10 W40) continues
to decline and a new region, located at N16 W34, has the potential
for M flares. ACE data show the north-south IMF continued to
maintain its southward bias to about -6 nT while the wind speed
ranged between 370 and 490 km/s. Solar wind parameters are likely
to become disturbed on 23 Nov in response to the 20 Nov CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22221112
Darwin 7 32222212
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 9 33222222
Alice Springs 5 22221112
Norfolk Island 4 22111112
Culgoora 5 22221111
Gnangara 7 22222222
Camden 6 23221111
Canberra 5 22221111
Hobart 8 23331111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 16 33552000
Casey 21 46422032
Mawson 21 54322253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 2223 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled
23 Nov 25 Active
24 Nov 25 Active
COMMENT: The effects of the 20 Nov CME are expected in the second
half of 23 Nov. Expect active with possible isolated minor storm
levels. Major storm levels possible at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
MUFs likely to be depressed on 24 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Enhancements 15-25% at
Townsville 10-18 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov 105 Near monthly predicted values to 20% enhanced.
23 Nov 105 Near monthly predicted values to 20% enhanced.
24 Nov 70 Near monthly predicted values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 20 November
and is current for 21-23 Nov (SWFs).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 97100 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list