[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 November 12 issued 2330 UT on 22 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 23 10:30:44 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 NOVEMBER - 25 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Nov: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Region 1618 (N07 W13) reconfigured but retains some
complexity. The region maintains flare potential. All other regions
appear stable. A new region at N16 W49 has emerged in the vicinity
of 1619 (N10 W54). LASCO and STEREO images show a CME around
1009 UT which may be associated with south-east quadrant activity
observed in SDO images. This CME may be weakly geo-effective.
ACE solar wind parameters were undisturbed. The solar wind is
predicted to become disturbed in the latter half of 23 Nov due
to the 20 Nov CME. The 21 Nov CME associated with the 1530 UT
M flare should arrive early on 24 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 4 -2112112
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 4 22112111
Alice Springs 2 20111001
Norfolk Island 1 11000001
Culgoora 1 10001011
Gnangara 4 21111112
Camden 1 11101010
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 11000011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 01001000
Casey 11 34332111
Mawson 8 32112114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3322 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Nov 20 Quiet to active.
24 Nov 30 Active to Minor Storm
25 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 22 November
and is current for 23-25 Nov. Isolated minor storm levels possible
in latter half of 23 Nov when CME effects should increase activity;
possible isolated minor storm levels on 25 Nov. Major storm levels
likely at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
24 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
MUFs likely to be depressed on 24 and 25 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Nov 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements
to 35% 07-17 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements
to 25%, 00, 10-15, 21-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements
to 55% at Darwin 07-19 UT and to 25% 11-20 UT at
Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements
to 30% 07-16 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Nov 105 Near monthly predicted values to 20% enhanced.
Possible depressions
24 Nov 70 Near monthly predicted values. Depressions to
30% possible at times.
25 Nov 70 Near monthly predicted values. Depressions to
30% possible at times.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 22 November
and is current for 24-25 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Nov
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 76200 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list