[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 12 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2012

Wed Nov 21 10:30:05 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7    1242UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.6    1928UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 141/95

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Nov             22 Nov             23 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: A number of C flares and two M flares, an M1.7 at 1241 
UT and an M1.6 at 1928 UT. Most flares originated from growing 
region 1618 (N07 E16). LASCO and STEREO images indicate a geo-effective 
CME around 1209 UT associated with the M1.7 flare from slowly 
declining region 1619 (N09 W23). Images also show a slow CME 
from the north-east quadrant/limb that is not expected to be 
geo-effective. ACE solar wind speed data ranged between 350 to 
460 km/s. The north-south IMF component maintained a mostly southward 
bias to about -7 nT after about 00 UT. The solar wind may be 
slightly disturbed on 21 and 22 Nov with modelling suggesting 
increased activity on 23 Nov due to the 1209 UT CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Quiet to unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22332332
      Darwin              12   32332332
      Townsville           9   22222332
      Learmonth           12   22232343
      Alice Springs       10   21331332
      Norfolk Island       7   22221231
      Culgoora            10   21332332
      Gnangara            10   22222342
      Camden              11   22332332
      Canberra            10   22322332
      Hobart              11   22332332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    18   12344532
      Casey               20   44442243
      Mawson              36   45323473

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1021 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled
22 Nov    10    Quiet to unsettled
23 Nov    25    Active

COMMENT: Active to minor storm levels occurred at high latitudes 
due to the sustained, mildly southward IMF. The geomagnetic field 
is expected to become disturbed on 23 Nov due to CME effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Nov      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Nov   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30% 16-17 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced 25-45% 00-15 UT, then near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 20-30% enhancements 08-19 UT
      at Darwin. Enhancements of 10-20% 00-09 UT, enhanced 25-45%
      10-19 UT, then near predicted monthly values at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. Most larger
      enhancements occurring 12-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Weak ionosphere; near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
22 Nov   110    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
23 Nov   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 20 November 
and is current for 21-23 Nov (SWFs).

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    62700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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