[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 12 issued 2346 UT on 18 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 19 09:46:25 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Region 1476 produced a C3 event from beyond the west
limb peaking at 0823UT. Regions 1482 and 1484 are still evolving,
have a beta magnetic configuration, with the potential to produce
isolated M-class flares. Other regions on the disc seems mostly
stable. The greater than 10MeV proton flux which began 17 May
is in decline. A filament eruption in the vicinity of region
1482 and associated CME were observed in SDO and STEREO images
at ~05UT. There is a gap in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A/B data. On
presently available data and the position of the active region,
a glancing blow from this CME is possible. The predicted arrival
of a weak shock from the M5 flare of May 17 has not yet eventuated.
The solar wind speed ranged between 380-440 km/s. There was a
sustained period of southward IMF Bz from 08UT to 14UT, otherwise
Bz was mostly neutral with fluctuations to +/-5nT. Solar wind
speeds may become slightly elevated with the possible glancing
CME impact day one of the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22121211
Darwin 7 32121222
Townsville 9 32222322
Learmonth 8 32122322
Norfolk Island 4 22111211
Camden 5 22121211
Canberra 2 11010210
Hobart 5 22121211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 3 10022211
Casey 14 43432222
Mawson 22 54223335
Davis 18 45333322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2110 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with
isolated Unsettled periods. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled at Antarctic
stations with isolated active to minor storm levels. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled days one and two
due to a possible glancing blow from the CME observed May 17.
Conditions should decline to Quiet day 3.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes next 3
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 70 About 15% below predicted monthly values
20 May 70 About 15% below predicted monthly values
21 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Blanketing Sporadic E was observed at times in equatorial
regions. Mostly good propagation conditions were observed in
the Australian region. Possible disturbed periods next three
days, S Aus / NZ / Antarctic regions most likely to be affected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 21400 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list