[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 12 issued 2344 UT on 17 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 18 09:44:05 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.1 0147UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: A flare reaching the M5 level originating from active
region 1476 (N12W89) was observed at 0147UT today. Type II and
type IV radio sweeps were observed in association with the flare.
The greater than 10MeV proton flux became strongly elevated following
this event. A CME observed in SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery
around 14UT on 17 May is primarily directed west, however, there
is the small chance of a glancing impact from this event late
day 1 of the forecast period although effects are only expected
to be slight. Solar wind speed was relatively steady at 340-380
Km/s. After about 03UT, the IMF Bz turned northward, it maintained
+5nT for most of the remainder of the UT day. Solar wind speeds
are expected to be predominantly low for the next few days with
the small chance that they may become slightly elevated with
the possible glancing CME impact late day one of the forecast
period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11101011
Darwin 4 22110112
Townsville 6 22212122
Learmonth 3 21111111
Norfolk Island 3 13000011
Camden 1 11001001
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
Macquarie Island 0 11000000
Casey 8 33321111
Mawson 5 32212101
Davis 9 33322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2111 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet. Quiet to Unsettled
at Antarctic stations. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be
predominantly Quiet. Unsettled possible late day one early day
2 due to a glancing blow from the CME observed May 17. Conditions
should decline to Quiet day 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes next 3
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 70 About 15% below predicted monthly values
19 May 70 About 15% below predicted monthly values
20 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal
over the UT day. Some periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus
locations overnight, degrading HF conditions there. Possible
disturbed periods next three days, S Aus / NZ / Antarctic regions
most likely to be affected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 32500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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