[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 12 issued 2348 UT on 19 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 20 09:48:12 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Region 1476 produced a C2 event peaking at 2359UT/18
may. Region 1479(N15W39) produced a low level C1 flare at 0123UT.
This region and region 1482 grew during the reporting period
and may produce C-class events and isolated M-class flares next
few days. All other regions currently on the disc are decaying
or stable. Further LASCO and STEREO imagery data is now available
for analysis and suggests a possible weak earth impact from the
CME associated with the filament eruption after 05UT/18 May.
The greater than 10MeV proton event that began 17 May ended.
LASCO C2 images show a CME after 1248UT. STEREO images indicate
it is a far side event and is not expected to be geoeffective.
Solar wind speed diminished from 420-360Km/s. The IMF Bz showed
minor fluctuations to +/-4 nT with a slight southward bias between
13-16UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain around current
levels days one and two, may become slightly elevated day 3 of
the forecast period with the possible effects of the CME of May
18.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21-22111
Norfolk Island 3 12111111
Camden 3 12111111
Canberra 0 11000000
Hobart 1 11011001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 2 11022000
Casey 8 33321112
Mawson 13 43321224
Davis 10 33332221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 7 Quiet
21 May 7 Quiet
22 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet. Mostly Quiet
to Unsettled at Antarctic stations. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days with Unsettled
levels possible for 22 May due to a glancing blow from the CME
observed May 18. Isolated Active to minor Storm levels may be
observed at high latitudes during 22 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next 2 days with some possibility of periods of minor MUF depressions
on high and some mid latitude locations on 22 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 70 About 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today on most
locations with isolated periods of minor enhancements at low
latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next three days with some possibility of minor degradations on
22 May, S Aus / NZ / Antarctic regions most likely to be affected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list