[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 12 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 26 10:30:33 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day with three C-class
flares from regions AR1444 (N19E09) and AR1445 (S24E50). A series
of weak, eastward-directed CMEs were observed in SOHO LASCO C2
imagery between 0048UT and 0524UT, none of which are expected
to have a significant impact on Earth. AR1445 is now an F-class
spot group with a beta magnetic configuration, with the potential
to produce isolated M-class flares as it rotates into a more
geoeffective position. Solar activity is therefore expected to
be at Low-Moderate levels. The solar wind speed declined over
the period to ~360km/s at time of reporting. The IMF was mostly
stable over the UT day, with a neutral orientation. A high speed
coronal hole wind stream is expected to move into geoeffective
position on day 3 (28-Mar).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22222001
Darwin 4 22212101
Townsville 3 11222001
Learmonth 5 22223100
Norfolk Island 3 21212001
Camden 3 12222000
Canberra 2 11212000
Hobart 5 22222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 6 11333000
Casey 9 34321110
Mawson 7 32322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1442 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 5 Quiet
27 Mar 5 Quiet
28 Mar 12 Unsettled, isolated Active periods at high latitudes
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect
mostly Quiet conditions next two days (26-27 Mar), and mostly
Unsettled conditions, with isolated Active periods at high latitudes,
day 3 (28-Mar) with the expected arrival of a coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
28 Mar Normal Normal Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal
over the UT day, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values.
Some mild depressions were experienced in S.Aus regions over
the day. MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly values
over the next three days (26-28 Mar).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 418 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 73100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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