[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 March 12 issued 2327 UT on 24 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 25 10:27:39 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Moderate
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day with an
M1.0 flare at 0900UT from AR1445 (S26E60), an active region newly
rotated onto the south-eastern limb. Associated with the flare
was a Type II radio burst (shock speed 580-860km/s) and a weak
CME in SOHO LASCO imagery. The CME is not expected to be geoeffective.
AR1445 is an E-class spot group with a beta magnetic configuration,
and has the potential to produce further isolated M-class flares,
as it rotates into a more geoeffective position. Solar activity
is therefore expected to be at Low-Moderate levels. The solar
wind speed increased over the period to ~450km/s. The IMF was
mostly stable over the UT day, with an isolated period of sustained
southwards orientation ~04-07UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet-Unsettled, with an
isolated Active period
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 12422211
Darwin 9 22422212
Townsville 9 12432211
Learmonth 8 22332211
Norfolk Island 7 22422110
Camden 9 12432211
Canberra 3 11310100
Hobart 8 12422211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 8 02502110
Casey 12 24332322
Mawson 22 33522354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3002 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Mar 5 Quiet
27 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet-Unsettled over
the UT day, with an isolated Active period ~06-09UT, as a result
of a sustained period of southward-directed IMF. Expect Quiet-Unsettled
conditions day 1 (25-Mar), and mostly Quiet conditions days 2
and 3 (26-27 Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Fair
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
27 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal
over the UT day, with MUFs near predicted monthly values, with
the exception of some mild overnight depressions in the equatorial
regions. Some periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus locations
overnight, degrading HF conditions there. MUFs are expected to
remain near predicted monthly values over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 46900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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