[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 12 issued 2325 UT on 23 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 24 10:25:51 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1940UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the UT day with an
M1.0 (1940UT) and a C6.5 (1639UT) Xray flare from a newly numbered
active region (AR11445, S24E74) that rotated onto the disc near
the south-eastern limb. The magnetic configuration of this active
region is difficult to determine accurately until it rotates
further onto the visible disc, however from its current activity
profile, solar activity is expected to continue at Moderate levels
with the chance of further M-class flares. The IMF recovered
from a sustained southwards period early in the UT day and otherwise
remained stable, with solar wind speed fluctuating between 320
and 420km/s.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 5 31211111
Townsville 3 21111111
Learmonth 6 32121221
Norfolk Island 3 21110111
Camden 3 21111111
Canberra 1 20110000
Hobart 4 21221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 10112000
Casey 8 33321121
Mawson 7 42221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gnangara 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1100 0133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 5 Quiet
25 Mar 5 Quiet
26 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet over the UT day,
with some unsettled periods early in the UT day as a result of
an extended period of mildly southward IMF. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to continue at Quiet levels next three days (24-26
Mar).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal
over the UT day, with MUFs near predicted monthly values. Some
periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus locations overnight,
degrading HF conditions there. MUFs are expected to remain near
predicted monthly values over the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: No Xray data available
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 28700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list