[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 12 issued 2351 UT on 26 Mar 2012

Tue Mar 27 10:51:23 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 102/50

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low during 26 March with a C-class 
flare from solar region 1442. Solar activity is expected to be 
Low-Moderate over the next few days with the return of previously 
active region 1429. A Type II sweep was observed at approximately 
2250-2255UT on 26 March on both Culgoora and Learmonth Radio 
Spectrographs. There was very little enhanced X-ray activity 
in association with this event. The shock speed determined from 
this sweep was approximately 500 km/s. The source of this sweep 
is unknown at the time of writing. A high speed coronal hole 
wind stream is expected to move into geoeffective position on 
27-28 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Darwin               2   01111101
      Townsville           2   10111101
      Learmonth            4   11112112
      Norfolk Island       2   11111001
      Camden               2   11121001
      Canberra             0   00011000
      Hobart               3   11121111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00011000
      Casey                6   23221111
      Mawson               5   31211112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2121 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active
29 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 27-28 March with isolated 
Active periods possible at times, particularly at high latitudes 
due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal to slightly 
degraded at times over the next few days. SWFs are possible over 
the next few days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Mar    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
28 Mar    70    Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal 
over the UT day, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. 
Some mild depressions were experienced at times during the past 
24 hours. MUFs are expected to remain near predicted monthly 
values to slightly depressed at times over the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    58200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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