[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 12 issued 2350 UT on 14 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 15 10:51:01 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 1522UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Region 1432(N14E03) produced an M2.8 flare peaking at
1521UT associated with a CME observed by the COR2-B coronagraph.
Solar activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days with
a chance of M-class events from region 1432. Previously X-M flares
producing region 1429(N19W77) is due to rotate behind the limb.
The >10MeV proton event which began Mar 13 remains in progress
but is in decline. Solar wind speed remains elevated, declining
from around 550 Km/s to around 480 km/s over the UT day. The
Bz component of the IMF turned moderately Southward, maintaining
-5nT for some hours and -2nT for most part of the UT day. Solar
wind speed is expected to continue to diminish over the next
24 hours. Possible effects from the CME observed on March 13
could increase the solar wind speed and density from late on
March 15 or early March 16. A coronal hole is expected to raise
the solar wind speed from March 16.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 21122322
Darwin 8 21222323
Townsville 7 21222322
Learmonth 9 22122333
Norfolk Island 6 21122222
Camden 7 21122322
Canberra 4 20022211
Hobart 8 22123322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 22124431
Casey 19 34433334
Mawson 39 55333565
Davis 26 43434445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 3321 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Mar 20 Active
17 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet over the last
24 hours for the Australian region with some Unsettled periods
associated with moderate Southward IMF Bz. Possible CME effects
might increase activity to Active levels from late on March 15
or early March 16. Coronal hole effects might further increase
activity from March 16.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 03 2012 1900UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Weak ionospheric support at high latitudes. Proton event
remains in progress but is declining.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Weak ionosphere observed in Antarctic region. Otherwise
propagation conditions mostly near predicted monthly values.
Expect mostly similar conditions next 24 hours. Degraded ionospheric
conditions possible days 2 and 3 affecting higher latitudes due
to anticipated geomagnetic disturbances. The >10MeV proton event
which began Mar 13 remains in progress but is in decline.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 574 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 229000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list