[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 12 issued 2351 UT on 15 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 16 10:51:43 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0754UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 111/62
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was at Moderate levels today. Region
1432(N14W14) produced an M1.8 flare peaking at 0752UT with associated
Type II radio sweep (468km/s) observed on the Learmonth Radio
Spectrograph. LASCO and STEREO images show a CME following the
flare. The >10MeV proton event which began Mar 13 ended at 0620UT.
Region 1432 has grown and is expected to continue producing M-class
flares with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare. A
Shock was observed in the solar wind around 1240UT. This is due
to the CME observed on March 13. Solar wind parameters become
disturbed with speed, density and temperature all increasing.
The wind speed rose to about 750Km/s. After the shock arrival,
the IMF Bz was(-10nT) Southward from about 13 to 17UT. It maintained
+/-2nT for most of the remainder of the day, trending towards
neutral at the time of report issue. ACE EPAM data indicates
an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 15/0740UT, which
can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain strengthened for the next 24 hours
due to the CME effects and the anticipated arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm. One Major
Storm period at Hobart and Learmonth.
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 22225533
Darwin 19 22225533
Townsville 16 22225433
Learmonth 26 22226544
Norfolk Island 15 22225432
Camden 20 22225543
Canberra 16 11125532
Hobart 26 22225644
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 54 22247764
Casey 37 44535644
Mawson 93 65435956
Davis 44 53445744
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 83 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 29
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3201 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: A shock passage from the CME of March 13 was observed
at the ACE satellite platform at around 1240UT. A geomagnetic
sudden impulse (32nT) was observed on the IPS magnetometer network
at 1307UT. The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes
was Quiet prior to the event, with Minor to Major Storm periods
observed following impact. Severe Storm levels were observed
at high latitudes following the sudden impulse. ACE EPAM data
indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 11/0215UT,
which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Unsettled to Active levels with
Storm levels at high latitudes day 1 due to the CME and coronal
hole effects. Conditions should decline to Quiet to Unsettled
on day 2 of the forecast period, but Active intervals are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began at 0800UT 13/03, Ended at 0650UT 15/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor
17 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes
next two days due to elevated geomagnetic activity. The >10MeV
proton event which began Mar 13 ended at 0620UT.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Night time depressed MUF periods observed in S Aus/NZ.
Generally weak ionospheric support Antarctic region. The >10MeV
proton event which began Mar 13 ended at 0620UT. Expect periods
of disturbance S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions days one and two due
to anticipated geomagnetic disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.4E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 136000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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