[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 March 12 issued 2352 UT on 13 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 14 10:52:39 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M7.9 1743UT probable lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Region 1429(N18W62) produced a M7.9 flare at 1741UT.
The proton flux above 10 MeV become elevated following this event.
LASCO and STEREO images show a halo CME associated with the flare
activity. Solar activity is expected to stay mostly at Low levels
for the next 3 days with some possibility of isolated M-class
events from region 1429 until it rotates of the disk on March
15. Solar wind speed remained elevated, varied mostly between
600-700Km/s. The IMF Bz stayed close (between +/-2nT) to the
normal value for most parts of the UT day. Solar wind speed is
expected to decline over the next 2 days. There may be some possibility
of strengthening in solar wind stream late day 2 early day 3
due to a possible arrival of the abovementioned CME. Solar wind
stream may also get some strength due to the effect of a recurrent
coronal hole from 16 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22222221
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 6 22122221
Learmonth 7 22222222
Norfolk Island 6 22122221
Camden 6 22222221
Canberra 5 21122221
Hobart 8 22232222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 23344211
Casey 22 35532333
Mawson 30 54322365
Davis 31 53443364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 37 2126 7432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 7 Quiet
15 Mar 7 Quiet
16 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet over the last 24 hours
for the Australian region with some Active and Storm periods
in Antarctica. These conditions are expected to continue for
the next 2 days. Coronal hole effects are expected to result
in some Unsettled periods from March 16. Possible CME effects
might further increase activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began at 0530UT 07/03, Ended at 2135UT 12/03
and, 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 13 03 2012 1900UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption
observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values.
15 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Weak ionosphere for the Antarctic region with increased
absorption. The present proton event is declining. HF propagation
conditions are expected to improve slightly over the next 2 days.
Degraded ionospheric conditions possible day 3 affecting higher
latitudes due to anticipated geomagnetic disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 233000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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