[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 March 12 issued 2347 UT on 12 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 13 10:47:37 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: No Significant X-ray events observed for the past 24
hours. Region 1439 still maintain beta-gamma-delta configuration
and may produce M-X class flares. A CME was observed in SOHO
imagery at around 0125UT. STEREO imagery suggests it is not Earth
directed. A shock was observed in ACE solar wind data at around
0842UT due to the arrival of the CME observed on March 9. The
IMF BZ dropped to around -20nT during this event, maintained
negative for about 2 hours, trending towards neutral at the time
of this report. The solar wind speed increased from 445 to 560Km/s
at about 0840UT due to the shock arrival, reached 775 Km/s at
17UT and is currently 770Km/s. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 12/0715UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. A shock
from the CME observed on March 10 is expected early day one of
the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 22 22265322
Darwin 19 22264322
Townsville 22 22265322
Learmonth 24 22265432
Norfolk Island 16 21255222
Camden 22 22265322
Canberra 13 11154321
Hobart 22 22265322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 35 22376332
Casey 34 45365334
Mawson 46 43366465
Davis 56 33375475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 2212 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 40 Major Storm
14 Mar 20 Unsettled to Active
15 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: A shock passage from the CME of March 09 was observed
at the ACE satellite platform at around 0840UT. A geomagnetic
sudden impulse (30nT) impulse was observed on the IPS magnetometer
network at 0915UT. The regional geomagnetic field at low to mid
latitudes was Quiet prior to the event, with Minor to Major Storm
periods observed following impact from around 10UT to 14UT, after
which conditions declined to Quiet to Unsettled. At high latitudes
conditions were mostly at Major to Severe Storm levels following
the sudden impulse. A shock from the CME of March 10 is expected
early day one of the forecast period, Active to Major Storm conditions
are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began at 0530UT 07/03, Ended at 2135UT 12/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Poor
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Continuing poor ionospheric support at high latitudes
next two days due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Poor Ionospheric support.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
14 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
20% possible at times.
15 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Highly variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus
regions with strong enhancements at times. Ongoing disturbances
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. Expect further ionospheric disturbance
days one and two affecting higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.8E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 68900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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