[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 12 issued 2329 UT on 04 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 5 10:29:32 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 1055UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Region 11427 (N15W34) has decayed while regions 11428
(S17E38) and 11429 (N18E55) have shown growth. There is a new
region to the west of 11428. Region 11429 produced three C and
the M flares while 11427 produced a C flare. The CME late 3 Mar
is unlikely to be geo-effective. There was a CME associated with
a filament eruption in the northeast quadrant around 0524 UT
and another associated with region 11429 around 1124 UT; both
observed in STEREO images. Either could be geo-effective. ACE
data show the IMF Bz component was again mostly southward, to
7 nT, with the wind speed less than 400 km/s. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be moderately disturbed over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 31322221
Darwin 9 31322231
Townsville 8 31322221
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk_Island 6 30222221
Camden 8 21332221
Canberra 4 20222210
Hobart 11 32333231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie_Island 18 34353-02
Casey - --------
Mawson 22 54333244
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 13 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 2332 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
06 Mar 14 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
levels possible at higher latitudes.
07 Mar 12 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: Continued mild activity due to southward IMF, active
to minor storm levels observed at high latitudes. Later 5 Mar,
activity is likely to increase due to the effects of the CME
from 29 Feb, high latitudes may experence some minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
07 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
40% 14-19 UT then depressions to 20%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
25% 07-13 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
25% 03-17 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
20% mostly 03-18 UT. Depressions to 30% at Canberra
Sydney and Hobart 00-09 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 10-25% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 70 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
to 20% possible at times.
06 Mar 70 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
to 20% possible at times.
07 Mar 60 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
to 25% possible at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 28900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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