[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 12 issued 2349 UT on 05 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 6 10:49:41 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.1 0410UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
M2.1 1916UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.8 1930UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.3 2235UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: A long-duration flare reaching the X1 level originating
in Active Region 1429 (N15E54) was observed 03-09UT today. Peak
X-ray flux was observed at 0409UT. Associated with this event
was a bright EIT wave with dimming and a front-side full-halo
CME. Estimated shock speed is 1300-1500 km/s. A greater than
10MeV proton flux enhancement started around 05/01UT and remains
in progress. This was possibly due to the M-class flare sequence
observed Mar 04, with further contribution from the X class flare
of Mar 05. A glancing blow from the Mar 05 CME is possible at
the Earth Mar 07-08. Following the X-class flare was a sequence
of C- to M-class flares originating in AR 1429 and solar radio
noise continua over the remainder of the UT day. Solar wind speed
remained steady at around 380 km/s and Bz remains slightly negatively
biased at around -5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Mostly quiet to unsettled.
Isolated active levels at high latitudes
only.
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 11232222
Darwin 7 11222223
Townsville 7 21132222
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk Island 7 22222222
Camden 6 11231222
Canberra 4 11121112
Hobart 6 11232212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 15 12353412
Casey 12 33232233
Mawson 34 44433266
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 5333 1232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar 20 Active
08 Mar 12 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 6 March and
is current for 7-8 Mar The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet
with an isolated Unsettled period 09-12UT at low to mid latitudes.
Conditions were Unsettled with Active intervals at high latitudes.
Expect similar conditions day one. A glancing blow from a solar
CME observed Mar 05 is possible on Mar 07-08 bringing Active
conditions with the chance of Minor to Major Storm intervals.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Periods of disturbance possible at high latitudes days
two to three due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values.
07 Mar 60 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
to 25% possible at times.
08 Mar 60 Mostly near predicated monthly values. Depressions
to 20% possible at times.
COMMENT: Variable depressions / enhancements observed equatorial/N
Aus regions. HF fadeout observed most Aus stations following
an X-class solar flare peaking at 0409UT. Periods of disturbance
possible days two to three mainly S Aus / Antarctic regions due
to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 50400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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