[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 12 issued 2328 UT on 03 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 4 10:28:42 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: The CME off the northeast limb, associated with 2 Mar
M3.3 flare from new region 11429 (N18E68), is unlikely to be
geo-effective. The six, low-level, C flares observed 3 Mar were
associated with regions 11427 (N15W31) and 11429. There is also
another new region, 11428 (S17E51). A CME was observed in STEREO
images at 1855 UT, probably related to region 11429 activity;
further images are required to determine its path. Solar wind
speed decreased from 420 to ~380 km/s while the IMF Bz was mostly
southward to 6 nT. Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly
disturbed 4 and 5 Mar. There is likely to be an increase in activity
late 5 or 6 Mar due to the effects of the CME on 29 Feb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Mostly quiet to
unsettled. Isolated active levels.
Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 21331312
Darwin 6 21221312
Townsville 7 21231302
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk_Island 7 21331212
Camden 8 12341211
Canberra 6 11331201
Hobart 10 22341312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
Macquarie_Island - --------
Casey - --------
Mawson - --------
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3331 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled, possible isolated active
periods.
05 Mar 10 Mostly quiet. Unsettled to active periods later.
06 Mar 14 Unsettled with isolated active periods.
COMMENT: Continued activity due to the near constant southward
IMF. Expect similar conditions 4 Mar. Later 5 Mar, activity is
likely to increase due to the effects of at CME from 29 Feb,
high latitudes may experence some minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
05 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
06 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Mar 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
14-20 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhancements to 30%
02-06 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
11-17 UT at Darwin and 07-17 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Depressions to 30% observed at Hobart and Western
Australian stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly 10-30% depressed. Blanketing sporadic E
observed during night hours.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Mar 60 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% possible
05 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% possible
06 Mar 70 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
to 20% possible at times.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 3 March
and is current for interval 4 March only.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 61000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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