[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 12 issued 2333 UT on 02 Mar 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 3 10:33:45 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 1748UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: SDO images indicate the M flare occurred off the northeast
limb. STEREO A images indicate an associated CME. Further images
will be required to determine the trajectory. Region 11423 (N17W33)
was stable while region 11427 (N15W13) decayed. The IMF Bz component
was mostly southward to 6 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between
420-500 km/s. The CME from 29 Feb is not expected until 5 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22323211
Darwin 7 22223222
Townsville 11 32223222
Learmonth - --------
Norfolk_Island 7 21322212
Camden 8 22323211
Canberra 5 21213211
Hobart 13 33324321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
Macquarie_Island 11 32------
Casey 21 34------
Mawson 48 55------
Davis 27 4-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 0434 3243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Active to minor storm levels at high latitudes. Isolated
active levels at higher latitudes 3 and 4 Mar. CME effects likely
to begin 5 Mar; expect active to possible minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to
20% 00, 06-10 UT and depressions to 20% 17-19 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced to 30% 00-07, 16-18 UT. Near predicted
monthly values with depressions to 20% 11-12 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
20% 08-21 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly depressed 10 to 30%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 65 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% possible
04 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% possible
05 Mar 70 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 75900 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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