[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 28 Jun 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 29 09:29:45 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1B    1612UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels with a single short 
duration M1 flare and multiple C class flares. Region 1513(N15E58) 
has been the most active producing the M class and several C 
class flares. Region 1512(S15E11) also produced several C flares. 
A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery at around 0630UT 
however STEREO imagery indicates this is a backside event. No 
other potentially geo-effective CMEs were observed. The solar 
wind speed declined from around 500 to 400 km/s over the day. 
The IMF Bz component was near neutral bias over the day. Solar 
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate over the next few 
days as regions 1512 and 1513 continue to grow. A co-rotating 
interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar wind 
stream is expected to arrive late on the 30th of June or early 
on the 1st of July.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221211
      Darwin               5   22221111
      Townsville           6   12222212
      Learmonth            5   22221211
      Norfolk Island       4   22221110
      Camden               4   12221200
      Canberra             4   11320200
      Hobart               5   -2321200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     4   01322100
      Casey                5   22221111
      Mawson               9   14332111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   1111 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun     5    Quiet
30 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet and are expected 
to remain mostly Quiet for the next 2 days. A co-rotating interaction 
region ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream is expected 
to arrive late on the 30th of June or early on the 1st of July. 
Unsettled to Active conditions are expected following the arrival.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good however the maximum 
useable frequencies are depressed due to low levels of ionising 
EUV flux and are expected to remain depressed for the next day. 
On day 3 (1 July) Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions 
may degrade HF propagation at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jun    55

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    60    Depressed up to 20%
30 Jun    65    Depressed up to 15%
01 Jul    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most of the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. A steady increase in solar UV 
flux is expected to increase the MUFs over the next few days. 
Current depressed levels are likely to persist for at least the 
next day.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    94400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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