[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 28 Jun 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 29 09:29:45 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/1B 1612UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels with a single short
duration M1 flare and multiple C class flares. Region 1513(N15E58)
has been the most active producing the M class and several C
class flares. Region 1512(S15E11) also produced several C flares.
A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery at around 0630UT
however STEREO imagery indicates this is a backside event. No
other potentially geo-effective CMEs were observed. The solar
wind speed declined from around 500 to 400 km/s over the day.
The IMF Bz component was near neutral bias over the day. Solar
activity is expected to be Low to Moderate over the next few
days as regions 1512 and 1513 continue to grow. A co-rotating
interaction region ahead of a coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream is expected to arrive late on the 30th of June or early
on the 1st of July.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22221211
Darwin 5 22221111
Townsville 6 12222212
Learmonth 5 22221211
Norfolk Island 4 22221110
Camden 4 12221200
Canberra 4 11320200
Hobart 5 -2321200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 01322100
Casey 5 22221111
Mawson 9 14332111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1111 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 5 Quiet
30 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet and are expected
to remain mostly Quiet for the next 2 days. A co-rotating interaction
region ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to arrive late on the 30th of June or early on the 1st of July.
Unsettled to Active conditions are expected following the arrival.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good however the maximum
useable frequencies are depressed due to low levels of ionising
EUV flux and are expected to remain depressed for the next day.
On day 3 (1 July) Unsettled to Active geomagnetic conditions
may degrade HF propagation at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 78
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 60 Depressed up to 20%
30 Jun 65 Depressed up to 15%
01 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most of the Australian
region during the last 24 hours. A steady increase in solar UV
flux is expected to increase the MUFs over the next few days.
Current depressed levels are likely to persist for at least the
next day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 94400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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