[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 29 Jun 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 30 09:29:24 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1B    0920UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity is at Moderate levels with multiple C-class 
and one M2 flare over the last 24 hours. Regions 1513(N17E45) 
and 1515(S17E58) have been the most active and continue to grow 
in size and complexity. The solar wind conditions were mostly 
ambient with a brief southward turning of the IMF Bz component 
down to -8nT around 2200UT. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed 
in currently available imagery. A co-rotating interaction region 
ahead of a coronal hole high speed wind stream is expected to 
arrive sometime late on the June 30 or early on July 1. Solar 
flare activity is expected to remain Moderate with more M flares 
from region 1513 and possibly 1515 likely.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101112
      Darwin               6   22101322
      Townsville           6   12212123
      Learmonth            5   22122112
      Norfolk Island       2   11000012
      Camden               2   11001012
      Canberra             1   11000002
      Hobart               6   11000034    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000000
      Casey                5   23201012
      Mawson              13   22301045

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2231 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active
02 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field has been Quiet in the Australian 
region. Conditions are expected to remain mostly Quiet until 
the arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream late on 
30 June or early on 1 July. Conditions are expected to be Unsettled 
to Active after the arrival with isolated Minor Storm levels 
of activity in Antarctica.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are good however the maximum 
useable frequencies have been depressed are may remain so for 
the next day or two. On days 2 and 3 (1-2 July) Unsettled to 
Active geomagnetic conditions may degrade HF propagation at high 
latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jun    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun    60    Depressed up to 20%
01 Jul    60    Depressed up to 20%
02 Jul    60    Depressed up to 20%

COMMENT: MUF depressions were observed over most of the Australian 
region during the last 24 hours. Current depressed levels are 
likely to persist for at least the next day.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    91300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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