[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 12 issued 2329 UT on 27 Jun 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 28 09:29:41 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JUNE 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jun             29 Jun             30 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity has been at low levels with several C 
class flares from regions 1512(S16E25) and 1513(N16E71) the greater 
magnitude flare was C3. Region 1512 showed continued growth over 
the last 24 hours. No geoeffective CMEs were observed. The solar 
wind speed increased from around 400 to 500 km/s over the day. 
The IMF Bz component ranged between +/- 5nT. Solar activity is 
expected to remain Low over the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11112111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           6   22222212
      Learmonth            6   22222212
      Norfolk Island       1   01001111
      Camden               2   01102101
      Canberra             2   01002101
      Hobart               1   -010----    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   00013200
      Casey                6   22212212
      Mawson               5   21212211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart             167   (Severe storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2322 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jun     5    Quiet
29 Jun     5    Quiet
30 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet and are expected 
to remain mostly Quiet for the next 3 days. A co-rotating interaction 
region ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream is expected 
to arrive late of the 30th of June or early on the 1st of July. 
Unsettled to Active conditions are expected following the arrival.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 
was issued on 26 June and is current for 27-28 Jun. HF propagation
conditions are good however the maximum useable frequencies are depressed
due to low levels of ionising EUV flux and are expected to remain 
depressed for the next 1-2 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jun    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  78

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jun    50    Depressed up to 30%
29 Jun    60    Depressed up to 20%
30 Jun    65    Depressed up to 20%

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 26 June 
and is current for 27-28 Jun. IPS HF Communications Warning 24 
was issued on 26 June and is current for 27-28 Jun. MUF depressions 
were observed over most of the Australian region during the last 
24 hours. The ionising solar UV flux has increased from low levels 
over the last day and is expected to trend upwards over the next 
few days. This is expected to increase the MUFs although depressions 
are likely to persist for at least the next 2 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 429 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    97200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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